SEMINÁRIO: Measuring Malaria of Hygiene Elimination: Random Ideas for a Deterministic Situation


  • Prof. Nuno Sepúlveda – London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine & CEAUL
  • FCUL – Campo Grande – Bloco C6 Piso 4 – Sala: 6.4.31 – 15:30h
  • Sexta-feira, 18 de Dezembro de 2015

Malaria is an infectious disease affecting millions of people worldwide. The latest WHO report showed a decreasing trend in disease incidence over the past decade and provided a list of more than 30 endemic countries, such as Cape Verde or Sri Lanka, that might target disease elimination and eradication in a near future. However, the measurement of malaria elimination and eradication in a given population gives arise to interesting statistical challenges, such as how to estimate the probability of freedom of infection using imperfect diagnostic tools or how to accurately detect recent disease exposure in absence of current infection using anti-malarial antibody data. The main objective of the talk is then to review and illustrate these challenges with real world data. Finally, some statistical guidelines for the design of future malaria elimination surveys are discussed.