Analysis of Extreme Rainfall in the Region Cévennes-Vivarais


  • Prof. Eugen Ursu – CEAUL / FCT
  • FCUL (DEIO) Campo Grande – Bloco C6 – Piso 4 – Sala: 6.4.31 – 15:30h
  • Quinta-feira, 2 de Dezembro de 2010

Extreme rainfall is prevalent in Cevennes-Vivarais in the South of France. Our goal is to quantify these extreme rainfall by means of the 100-year return level. To this end, five regionalization schemes are evaluated. Each scheme consists in a statistical model for extreme observations taken from Extreme-Value Theory plus a method to interpolate the parameters of the statistical model throughout the Cevennes-Vivarais region. From the interpolated parameters, the 100-year quantile level can be estimated over this whole region.
Hyper-parameters are selected by cross-validation and the five regionalization schemes are compared by double cross-validation. Our evaluation criteria are based on the ability to interpolate the 100-year return level both in precision and in spatial distribution.