Forecasting Mortality Risks in Space-Time Disease Mapping


  • Profª María Dolores Ugarte – Departamento de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, Universidad Pública de Navarra
  • FUNDAÇÃO FCUL Bloco C1 Piso 3 – Anfiteatro – Campo Grande – 14:30 h
  • Sexta-feira, 12 de Outubro de 2012
  • Referência Projeto: PEst-OE/MAT/UI0006/2011

The main goal of space-time disease mapping is describing the evolution of geographical patterns of mortality. This could give clues to epidemiologists and public health researchers to formulate etiologic hypothesis of the disease. However, the ability of disease mapping models to make predictions about future mortality or incidence counts has not been widely explored. In this talk, alternative models are considered for risk estimation and forecasting. Real data on cancer mortality will be used for illustration.

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