New Insights on Extreme Value Analysis: “Filling the Gap between Point-in-Time and Extreme Value Distributions”


  • Dr. Roberto Mínguez – Environmental & Hydraulics Institute “IH Cantabria” – University of Cantabria, Espanha
  • FCUL (DEIO) – Campo Grande – Bloco C6 Piso 4 – Sala 6.4.30 – 14:30h
  • Sexta-feira, 16 de Novembro de 2012

Engineering design entails the definition of structural elements so that the structure satisfies different requirements during its construction, service life and dismantling. The satisfaction of those requirements is checked by defining the probability of failure of limit states, each of them with an associated threshold probability. According to the consequences produced in case the limit state is trespassed, the acceptable probability and also the denomination of the limit state change. For instance, ultimate, damage, serviceability, or operating stop. From the practical point of view, this distinction requires the characterisation of both the point-intime and extreme probability distribution of all random variables involved, and the selection of the appropriate distribution depending on the limit state. This talk discusses the relationship between both distributions; establishing the appropriate methodology to work with point-in-time and extreme distributions simultaneously, and understanding the link between them from the practical perspective. In addition, a possible extension to analyse and improve the characterization of the right tail of the distribution is presented, showing some practical examples. Finally, we raise some theorecial concerns which may motivate further studies from a theoretical perspective, which would complement and reinforce its practical applicability for engineering design.