- Prof. Nuno Sepúlveda – London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom/Center of Statistics and Applications of University of Lisbon, Portugal
- FCUL (DEIO) – Campo Grande – Bloco C6 Piso 4 – Sala: 6.4.30- 14:30h
- Quarta-feira, 14 de Janeiro de 2015
- Referência Projeto: Pest-OE/MAT/UI0006/2014
Specific antibodies against Plasmodium parasite antigens have been used in malaria epidemiology, because they can infer the underlying force-of-infection under stable disease transmission intensity, or detect putative changes in disease transmission due to a malaria control intervention. The corresponding statistical analysis is based on a series of reverse catalytic models where individuals transit between seronegativity and seropositivity states upon presence or absence of malaria exposure. In this talk I present antibody data from the Brazilian Amazonia region in the Pará state with the aim of reconstructing the underlying malaria infection history. In particular I extend existing reverse catalytic models in order to incorporate changes in disease transmission together with migration that might have occurred due to gold mining exploitation. I use Bayesian methodology to estimate key epidemiological parameters and to compare competing models. Finally, the results are interpreted and discussed in light of historical facts known from the study area.